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Takeaways from The Emerging Story of Vote Shares in Delhi – AAP, BJP and Congress all explained

Delhi Assembly election results

As the results for the 2020 Delhi Assembly elections have started to consolidate and the Aam Aadmi Party has taken a lead, here is a snapshot of the vote share story as has emerged as of this time.

The Complete Decimation of Congress in Delhi

The Congress party’s rout has been the big story to emerge. Whereas in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the Congress had secured over 22% of the votes, the Congress party has literally disappeared from Delhi’s electoral map, polling barely over 4% vote.

This is less than half of the votes (9.7%) it had secured in 2015, when it seems to have drawn a blank in the Delhi Assembly for the first time. The vote share of the Congress seems to have entirely moved en masse towards the AAP.

The Congress was the apex party up to December 2013, having won three consecutive assembly elections in Delhi under the late Shiela Dikshit’s leadership with significant margins. Today however, Delhi has become Congress mukt.

Resurgence of BJP’s Vote in Delhi

BJP in Delhi has revived significantly in terms of vote share, beating all exit polls to nearly 40% of Delhi’s vote share. This is the highest vote share BJP has ever secured for Vidhan Sabha or MCD elections in the past six years. Only the Lok Sabha performance in 2014 and 2019 managed to trump these numbers.

In several seats, the BJP is giving a tough fight to the AAP candidates, with the differences being under one thousand votes. Prime AAP candidates like Manish Sisodia and Atishi Marlena have been given a run for their money with margins slimming down significantly.

Interestingly, its best performance in the past two decades in terms of seats came in 2013, when it had secured 34 seats. Even at that time, the vote share of the BJP stood at 33%. This time though, a 7 percentage point jump in the vote share from its 2015 tally of 32.2% has led them to a modest performance at best.

AAP recovers from three constant drubs, becomes single largest party

AAP has shown a massive recovery to regain over 50% share, as it had secured in the 2015 assembly election. One has to note that in three previous consecutive elections the AAP had collapsed through. During 2016 municipal corporation elections had seen the vote share halve to 27%, while in the 2019 Lok Sabha it had secured only 18% of the votes falling behind Congress.

However, post 2019 Lok Sabha, the AAP managed to regroup, and managed to revive its fortunes. This saw it pull 16 percentage point vote from the BJP and over 18 percentage point vote of the Congress back towards itself when compared to the 2019 Lok Sabha results.

BJP Allies Fare Poorly in Their Seats

BJP ally Janata Dal (United) was given two seats in Delhi – Burari and Sangam Vihar. Another ally, Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) was contesting on one seat – Seemapuri. The allies fared very poorly despite support from the BJP, clocking only 30% of the votes polled in these three seats.

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