In the summer of 2019, India is preparing itself for three things – Rising Temperature, IPL and the general election. Among all three, the most important these days looks to be the buzz about the Lok Sabha elections of 2019. The heated debate between the two sides (BJP and the others) has swept the country, although, there is a general perception in favour of incumbent prime minister Narendra Modi.
We approached this election in a different way. We tried to go back and see what would have happened in case Congress Party had won the Lok Sabha election of 2014 instead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. We forecasted the figures for the assumed UPA III across different sectors and plotted them on graphs. We also compared the same with what incumbent government of NDA has achieved in reality.
Methodology – Linear forecast on the actual figures of UPA II.
1. Rural Houses Completed
Figures: Rural Houses Completed – Rural
2. Rural Toilets Constructed (Would have come to zero in case of UPA after 2014)
Figures: Toilets Constructed – Rural (In Lakh)
3. Patents Granted
Figures: Number of Patent Granted
4. Electricity Generated
Figures: Total Electricity Generation (In Billion Unit)
5. National Highways Constructed
Figures: Length of National Highway Constructed
6. Railway Electrification
Figures: Railway Electrification (In Route Kilometres)
7. FDI Inflows into India
Figures: FDI Flow into India (In USD Million)
8. Inflation (Average after 2014)
Figures: Inflation (CPI Combined)
9. Foreign Exchange Reserves (Average after 2014)
Figures: Total Foreign Exchange Reserves (In USD Million)
10. Area under Micro-Irrigation
Figures: Area Under Micro-Irrigation (In Lakh Hectares)
11. LPG Connection Released by OMCs
Figures: New LPG Connection Released by OMCs
12. Terrorists Hunted Down in J&K
Figures: Number of Terrorists Hunted Down in J&K
13. Total Debit Card Payments
Figures: Total Debit Cards Payment – Rural (Volume in Million)
The trends prove the point that India’s development would have slowed down, in case Congress government was elected in 2014, as seen through various parameters above.